Technical Watch Cumulative Charts

Cumulative Data
Week Ending 4/23/04

A near term key juncture is now upon us with the cumulative A/D data now testing the underside of it's 10% and 5% trends (the 20 day EMA and 40 day EMA respectively) after having broken below these two moving averages in the first quarter of this year.

With the price patterns of the indices represented continuing to consolidate, the cumulative A/D volume is holding up but the cumulative A/D breadth continues to lead to the downside suggesting that market participation is becoming more selective and is not as broad based as had been the case over the last year.

Nasdaq breadth has bounced nicely off the 1% trend (200 day EMA) but is now vulnerable to either a retest or all out break if the market decides that there is more work to do before the correctional process of the previous overbought excesses can then be called complete.

With the prolonged length of time in which this data has remained above the EMA's shown on these charts, combined with the overall complacency that continues to be maintained over the last month, a neutral stance should continued to be maintained as the bulls and bears continue to battle - with the upper hand being given to the bears until proven otherwise short term.

The above charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com

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